RISKMODE

Framber Valdez to walk two or more is my favorite thing on the board today, and I know that is not the flashiest pick anybody put up this morning.

Here is why. He has walked at least two men in seven straight starts, and in 21 of his 26 all year. Today he draws the Dodgers, who take more walks than almost any lineup in baseball. A pitcher who nibbles meeting a team that refuses to chase is exactly how free passes pile up.

Willi Castro has a hit in 68 percent of his games this year and in 8 of his last 10, with a righty going today. Alejandro Kirk has thirteen strikeouts in 155 trips against right-handers — the man does not miss the baseball. Salvador Perez hits lefties at .270 and a lefty starts. Caballero has produced a hit, run, or RBI in 8 of his last 10, and he runs, so he can score without ever getting a knock.

Two Dingers, both at Wrigley: wind straight out at 12 in 79-degree air, about as friendly as that park ever gets. Crow-Armstrong has nine homers in his last fifteen and hit three last night. Conforto is the long one standing in the same wind.

Same size on every one of these, and keep it small. Four of the five need their lineup card posted — check the page comments before first pitch for scratches and updates.